Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
