Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
